Netflix Is Getting Crushed. Here’s Why I’ll Start Buying
Netflix Is Getting Crushed. Here’s Why I’ll Start Buying
Vandita JadejaWed, July 22, 2026 at 12:00 PM UTC
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Netflix trades near its 52-week low of $65 but carries a $161 price target, implying 138% upside with 90% confidence.
Netflix's 33% operating margin dwarfs Disney+'s, and Spotify trades at a richer forward multiple, making NFLX the most mispriced of the three.
Reed Hastings personally bought 794,250 shares at depressed prices while Netflix executed its largest-ever $4.7 billion buyback, with $27 billion still authorized.
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Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) trades well below our 24/7 Wall St. price target. Shares closed at $67.68 after falling 27.9% year-to-date and 44.1% over the past year. Our proprietary model points materially higher on a 12-month view, and the drawdown looks like an entry point rather than a warning.
NFLX Price Target — 24/7 Wall St.24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary
Metric
Value
Current Price
$67.68
24/7 Wall St. Price Target
$161.40
Upside
138.47%
Recommendation
Confidence Level
90%
Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Netflix is $161.40, implying triple-digit upside from current levels. This reflects a stock that has become genuinely cheap relative to its earnings power.
Why Netflix Is Getting Crushed
NFLX is down 8.44% in the past week and 12.64% over the past month, now sitting 23% below the 52-week high of $126.71 and near the 52-week low of $65.08.
Q2 2026 delivered EPS of $0.80 on revenue of $12.559 billion, a slight revenue miss against a 13.37% YoY gain. Free cash flow fell 32.73% on higher cash taxes, and the earnings-day narrative was harsh: "Netflix beat earnings, did its biggest buyback and then restricted access to its engagement data and fell 12% through two days." The market wanted a clean quarter and got a messy one.
NFLX Earnings Explorer — 24/7 Wall St.The Case for $170 and Higher
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NFLX Price Scenario — 24/7 Wall St.
The bull thesis rests on advertising. Netflix guided FY2026 ad revenue to roughly $3 billion, essentially doubling from $1.5 billion in 2025, with advertiser count up 70% YoY to over 4,000. Full-year 2026 guidance calls for revenue of $51 to $51.4 billion, operating margin of 31.5%, and FCF near $12.5 billion.
Netflix repurchased $4.7 billion of stock in Q2, its largest buyback ever, with $27.1 billion still authorized. Founder Reed Hastings bought 794,250 shares in May and June at depressed prices, signaling insider conviction. Our bull case target sits at $173.18.
What Could Go Wrong
Bears have real ammunition. Content amortization is front-loaded into H1 2026, pressuring near-term margins, and $1 billion in debt matures later in 2026. Prediction markets on Polymarket assign only a 18% probability that NFLX finishes this week above $70, and composite sentiment has fallen 21.79 points over 30 days.
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Bulls counter that the Q2 FCF drop was driven by cash tax timing and the Warner Bros. termination. Our bear case still lands at $130.55, well above today's price.
NFLX Analyst Ratings — 24/7 Wall St.How Netflix Stacks Up Against Disney and Spotify
Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) is the natural streaming comp given its Disney+ and Hulu streaming platforms. Disney's SVOD margins remain well below Netflix's. That margin gap makes Netflix's 33.4% operating margin premium-worthy and supports the higher multiple in our target.
Spotify (NYSE:SPOT) is the audio streaming comp, continuing to grow Premium Subscribers at a healthy pace. Spotify trades at a much richer multiple than Netflix on forward earnings, making the discount on NFLX look mispriced relative to its scale, margins, and buyback capacity. The peer set makes our 24/7 Wall St. price target look reasonable.
The Bull Case Summary
The 24/7 Wall St. price target is $161.40, our recommendation is buy, and confidence sits at 90%. The combination of a doubling ad business, a $27 billion buyback runway, and founder-level insider buying into weakness is compelling.
Investors may want to watch for a move toward the $65 52-week low as H2 FCF confirms guidance. Key risks include Q3 revenue missing the $12.86 billion guide or the $1 billion refinancing hitting at penal rates.
Netflix Price Prediction 2026-2030
Year
24/7 Wall St. Price Target
2026
$95
2027
$161
2028
$245
2029
$390
2030
$560
These projections assume Netflix executes on ad-tier scale-up and defends operating margins. Significant upside or downside could come from live sports economics and GenAI content adoption pace.
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Contact editorial@247wallst.com for any questions or corrections.
Source: “AOL Money”
