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Talarico neck and neck with Paxton in new Texas Senate poll

Talarico neck and neck with Paxton in new Texas Senate poll

Sarah Davis Thu, September 17, 2026 at 2:25 PM UTC

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Democrat James Talarico, a state lawmaker, and state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) remain deadlocked in the Texas Senate race less than seven weeks out from Election Day, according to a new poll released Thursday.

The Hill/Emerson College Polling survey found 47 percent of state voters supported Talarico, while 46 percent backed Paxton in the race.

The Democrat has gained a slight lead over the GOP state attorney general in recent polling. In a Telemundo/Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy survey released earlier this week, the Democrat posted a 3-point advantage over his GOP opponent.

Talarico and Paxton tied in two separate Siena University polls in June, but Talarico pulled ahead of Paxton by 4 percentage points in the polling center’s survey at the end of July.

In the Texas gubernatorial race, incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott (R) garnered 49 percent support in the poll, compared with the 46 percent who supported Democratic candidate Gina Hinojosa.

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Additionally, the survey asked Texas voters for their opinion on the GOP’s midterm convention earlier this month in Dallas, where President Trump and other party leaders urged Republicans to turn out the vote this November.

Among the voters who had heard about the two-day event, 59 percent of Republicans and 53 percent of Democrats said the convention made them more excited to cast their ballot in the election.

Sixty-eight percent of independent voters in the poll said the convention had “no impact” on their excitement to vote.

The economy remained a top concern for voters, with 36 percent of Texans ranking it as a top issue ahead of immigration, education, healthcare and threats to democracy.

The Hill/Emerson poll was conducted among a sample of 1,000 likely voters in the state from Sept. 12-14 with a margin of error of approximately 3 percentage points.

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